IAORION

Informe de investigación PAT_HIKKAKE

Motor 3 · Investigación. No es una cuenta financiada ni una promesa de ganancias.

todo/trail

No supera filtros de desarrollo/selección o estabilidad

{
  "id": "60e3db3df4291a1940b4",
  "engine_version": "3.0.0",
  "entrada": "PAT_HIKKAKE",
  "familia": "Velas",
  "regimen": "todo",
  "salida": "trail",
  "activos": [],
  "discovery_assets": [],
  "descubierto": null,
  "first_seen": "2026-10-13T08:39:15.136458+00:00",
  "evaluated_at": "2026-10-18T16:00:02.050343+00:00",
  "categoria": "DESCARTADA",
  "base_passed": false,
  "walk_forward": null,
  "forward": {
    "n": 0,
    "net_R": 0.0,
    "expectancy_R": null,
    "pf": null,
    "max_drawdown_R": 0.0,
    "win_rate": null,
    "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
    "funding_approved": false
  },
  "funding_approved": false,
  "p_revienta": null,
  "risk_probability_status": "not_estimated",
  "razon": "No supera filtros de desarrollo/selección o estabilidad",
  "markets": {
    "BTCUSDT-4h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_HIKKAKE",
        "exit": "trail",
        "regime": "todo",
        "market": "BTCUSDT-4h",
        "cost_bps": 8.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "6e39d096e9be5ed21e84"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 307,
        "net_R": -2.672000958464885,
        "expectancy_R": -0.008703586183924706,
        "pf": 0.9844299944920905,
        "max_drawdown_R": 36.58645865722953,
        "win_rate": 0.32247557003257327,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 93,
        "net_R": 3.184298181424206,
        "expectancy_R": 0.03423976539165813,
        "pf": 1.0603372757596818,
        "max_drawdown_R": 10.775776689532808,
        "win_rate": 0.3225806451612903,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 107,
        "net_R": -14.476638202295184,
        "expectancy_R": -0.13529568413359985,
        "pf": 0.7490409429017542,
        "max_drawdown_R": 20.84991444114332,
        "win_rate": 0.37383177570093457,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": {
        "side": 1,
        "entry": 81355.2,
        "rd": 1195.7777609941836,
        "sl": 80414.86116117451,
        "tp": 83746.75552198837,
        "highest": 82295.47,
        "lowest": 80819.66,
        "bars": 6,
        "open_ts": "2026-10-17 16:00:00+00:00",
        "pending_exit": null,
        "unreal_R": -0.20240663432206224
      },
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2022-09-09 20:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-10-18 12:00:00+00:00"
    },
    "ETHUSDT-4h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_HIKKAKE",
        "exit": "trail",
        "regime": "todo",
        "market": "ETHUSDT-4h",
        "cost_bps": 9.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "4344afefbb4e8a252904"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 307,
        "net_R": -23.185877082935537,
        "expectancy_R": -0.07552402958610924,
        "pf": 0.8638986710684539,
        "max_drawdown_R": 27.350084263044213,
        "win_rate": 0.2899022801302932,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 90,
        "net_R": 11.893913104109815,
        "expectancy_R": 0.13215459004566463,
        "pf": 1.2431199907064956,
        "max_drawdown_R": 7.86966464013942,
        "win_rate": 0.35555555555555557,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 111,
        "net_R": -22.913924449605986,
        "expectancy_R": -0.20643175179825213,
        "pf": 0.6569413719272705,
        "max_drawdown_R": 29.90351101711521,
        "win_rate": 0.2972972972972973,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": {
        "side": -1,
        "entry": 2428.06,
        "rd": 59.58416948495742,
        "sl": 2445.699615990006,
        "tp": 2308.8916610300853,
        "highest": 2441.66,
        "lowest": 2356.79,
        "bars": 9,
        "open_ts": "2026-10-17 04:00:00+00:00",
        "pending_exit": null,
        "unreal_R": 0.7769941815113833
      },
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2022-09-09 20:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-10-18 12:00:00+00:00"
    },
    "SOLUSDT-4h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_HIKKAKE",
        "exit": "trail",
        "regime": "todo",
        "market": "SOLUSDT-4h",
        "cost_bps": 10.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "c5083747fcf2ef3be5d0"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 284,
        "net_R": -27.31052031712785,
        "expectancy_R": -0.09616380393354877,
        "pf": 0.8250010592329741,
        "max_drawdown_R": 47.887858935889035,
        "win_rate": 0.3204225352112676,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 94,
        "net_R": 1.1959514992404863,
        "expectancy_R": 0.012722888289792407,
        "pf": 1.0270780217385083,
        "max_drawdown_R": 8.667123845952206,
        "win_rate": 0.3404255319148936,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 104,
        "net_R": -11.188495019812763,
        "expectancy_R": -0.10758168288281503,
        "pf": 0.8183591411681481,
        "max_drawdown_R": 18.431158322198993,
        "win_rate": 0.3076923076923077,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": {
        "side": 1,
        "entry": 104.01,
        "rd": 2.770877903906075,
        "sl": 101.23912209609394,
        "tp": 109.55175580781216,
        "highest": 104.32,
        "lowest": 101.75,
        "bars": 1,
        "open_ts": "2026-10-18 12:00:00+00:00",
        "pending_exit": null,
        "unreal_R": -0.6796113236694364
      },
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2022-09-09 20:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-10-18 12:00:00+00:00"
    },
    "BNBUSDT-4h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_HIKKAKE",
        "exit": "trail",
        "regime": "todo",
        "market": "BNBUSDT-4h",
        "cost_bps": 9.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "70cbc097b0cf5894848a"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 277,
        "net_R": -18.199992997786424,
        "expectancy_R": -0.0657039458403842,
        "pf": 0.8803434139805717,
        "max_drawdown_R": 44.886108392896745,
        "win_rate": 0.30324909747292417,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 101,
        "net_R": 5.367853019249902,
        "expectancy_R": 0.05314705959653369,
        "pf": 1.0982814425324583,
        "max_drawdown_R": 11.83524018145711,
        "win_rate": 0.37623762376237624,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 94,
        "net_R": -7.140660662030911,
        "expectancy_R": -0.07596447512798842,
        "pf": 0.8694893787715229,
        "max_drawdown_R": 14.937328812742965,
        "win_rate": 0.32978723404255317,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": {
        "side": -1,
        "entry": 723.43,
        "rd": 10.668740983187927,
        "sl": 729.8634232233809,
        "tp": 702.0925180336241,
        "highest": 724.25,
        "lowest": 711.36,
        "bars": 1,
        "open_ts": "2026-10-18 12:00:00+00:00",
        "pending_exit": null,
        "unreal_R": 0.9142215576673889
      },
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2022-09-09 20:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-10-18 12:00:00+00:00"
    },
    "XRPUSDT-4h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_HIKKAKE",
        "exit": "trail",
        "regime": "todo",
        "market": "XRPUSDT-4h",
        "cost_bps": 10.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "74736b3a9cc07017bad8"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 288,
        "net_R": -0.15238108128756744,
        "expectancy_R": -0.0005291009766929425,
        "pf": 0.9989693026085065,
        "max_drawdown_R": 26.878495773194032,
        "win_rate": 0.3680555555555556,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 96,
        "net_R": -22.01852085574867,
        "expectancy_R": -0.22935959224738198,
        "pf": 0.6172501780839763,
        "max_drawdown_R": 29.32339885914104,
        "win_rate": 0.2708333333333333,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 99,
        "net_R": -3.4882578809874483,
        "expectancy_R": -0.035234928090782304,
        "pf": 0.9345549967255243,
        "max_drawdown_R": 16.983707372838207,
        "win_rate": 0.37373737373737376,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": {
        "side": 1,
        "entry": 1.2929,
        "rd": 0.03219223803722911,
        "sl": 1.260707761962771,
        "tp": 1.3572844760744582,
        "highest": 1.3041,
        "lowest": 1.2687,
        "bars": 2,
        "open_ts": "2026-10-18 08:00:00+00:00",
        "pending_exit": null,
        "unreal_R": -0.6331759219855209
      },
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2022-09-09 20:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-10-18 12:00:00+00:00"
    },
    "BTCUSDT-1h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_HIKKAKE",
        "exit": "trail",
        "regime": "todo",
        "market": "BTCUSDT-1h",
        "cost_bps": 8.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "c08615b50e03ea5dcdbd"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 278,
        "net_R": 10.803932438479427,
        "expectancy_R": 0.038863066325465566,
        "pf": 1.070412127928279,
        "max_drawdown_R": 14.346413840568006,
        "win_rate": 0.34532374100719426,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 91,
        "net_R": -8.10961830962487,
        "expectancy_R": -0.08911668472115243,
        "pf": 0.8371787156364411,
        "max_drawdown_R": 20.26822207956518,
        "win_rate": 0.34065934065934067,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 91,
        "net_R": 0.5504758033806073,
        "expectancy_R": 0.0060491846525341465,
        "pf": 1.0109102936192798,
        "max_drawdown_R": 26.61244974237527,
        "win_rate": 0.31868131868131866,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": {
        "side": -1,
        "entry": 82152.56,
        "rd": 412.6685568884042,
        "sl": 81730.93040096195,
        "tp": 81327.22288622319,
        "highest": 82265.0,
        "lowest": 81003.88,
        "bars": 6,
        "open_ts": "2026-10-18 10:00:00+00:00",
        "pending_exit": null,
        "unreal_R": 2.202851874284751
      },
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2025-10-08 17:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-10-18 15:00:00+00:00"
    },
    "ETHUSDT-1h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_HIKKAKE",
        "exit": "trail",
        "regime": "todo",
        "market": "ETHUSDT-1h",
        "cost_bps": 9.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "93b0652cbf713e03d7ff"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 290,
        "net_R": -12.327726308065476,
        "expectancy_R": -0.04250940106229474,
        "pf": 0.9292084408434678,
        "max_drawdown_R": 27.977097673822524,
        "win_rate": 0.32068965517241377,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 103,
        "net_R": 3.6175829098362504,
        "expectancy_R": 0.03512216417316748,
        "pf": 1.0591719727433357,
        "max_drawdown_R": 13.917068296509893,
        "win_rate": 0.30097087378640774,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 99,
        "net_R": 22.1167046000594,
        "expectancy_R": 0.22340105656625656,
        "pf": 1.4362612935596593,
        "max_drawdown_R": 14.891754448491344,
        "win_rate": 0.36363636363636365,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": {
        "side": -1,
        "entry": 2425.54,
        "rd": 22.317077163606868,
        "sl": 2404.806504385681,
        "tp": 2380.905845672786,
        "highest": 2429.43,
        "lowest": 2368.0,
        "bars": 12,
        "open_ts": "2026-10-18 04:00:00+00:00",
        "pending_exit": null,
        "unreal_R": 1.9616227823681882
      },
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2025-10-08 17:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-10-18 15:00:00+00:00"
    },
    "SOLUSDT-1h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_HIKKAKE",
        "exit": "trail",
        "regime": "todo",
        "market": "SOLUSDT-1h",
        "cost_bps": 10.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "b749c59d89f1a810c458"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 264,
        "net_R": 18.146031208362622,
        "expectancy_R": 0.06873496669834327,
        "pf": 1.1327603121170131,
        "max_drawdown_R": 13.220967990960789,
        "win_rate": 0.375,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 96,
        "net_R": -4.114689143642636,
        "expectancy_R": -0.04286134524627746,
        "pf": 0.92213583705648,
        "max_drawdown_R": 18.230839046826336,
        "win_rate": 0.375,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 81,
        "net_R": 18.1974657849011,
        "expectancy_R": 0.22466007141853211,
        "pf": 1.4176809525093443,
        "max_drawdown_R": 14.444061491005293,
        "win_rate": 0.35802469135802467,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": null,
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2025-10-08 17:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-10-18 15:00:00+00:00"
    },
    "BNBUSDT-1h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_HIKKAKE",
        "exit": "trail",
        "regime": "todo",
        "market": "BNBUSDT-1h",
        "cost_bps": 9.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "419109979d3929aba705"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 274,
        "net_R": 17.68770387090141,
        "expectancy_R": 0.06455366376241391,
        "pf": 1.1168839426010477,
        "max_drawdown_R": 19.18053936541948,
        "win_rate": 0.3795620437956204,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 94,
        "net_R": -2.744324316645373,
        "expectancy_R": -0.02919493953878056,
        "pf": 0.9493585027865814,
        "max_drawdown_R": 21.73517373238168,
        "win_rate": 0.32978723404255317,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 87,
        "net_R": 29.70842732793054,
        "expectancy_R": 0.34147617618310966,
        "pf": 1.845923178900956,
        "max_drawdown_R": 5.492317058684673,
        "win_rate": 0.4482758620689655,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": {
        "side": -1,
        "entry": 722.52,
        "rd": 4.754934830623837,
        "sl": 719.1358869955855,
        "tp": 713.0101303387523,
        "highest": 724.25,
        "lowest": 711.36,
        "bars": 12,
        "open_ts": "2026-10-18 04:00:00+00:00",
        "pending_exit": null,
        "unreal_R": 1.8599629258934964
      },
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2025-10-08 17:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-10-18 15:00:00+00:00"
    },
    "XRPUSDT-1h": {
      "spec": {
        "version": "3.0.0",
        "signal": "PAT_HIKKAKE",
        "exit": "trail",
        "regime": "todo",
        "market": "XRPUSDT-1h",
        "cost_bps": 10.0,
        "atr_period": 20,
        "sl_atr": 1.5,
        "trail_atr": 2.5,
        "rr": 2.0,
        "max_hold": 300,
        "risk_pct": 0.1,
        "funding_approved": false,
        "cost_model": "estimated_roundtrip_bps; excludes unknown funding/swap",
        "id": "ab551d196572c1c826af"
      },
      "train": {
        "n": 267,
        "net_R": -7.638379217387449,
        "expectancy_R": -0.02860816186287434,
        "pf": 0.9516715603446314,
        "max_drawdown_R": 24.158898917643192,
        "win_rate": 0.30711610486891383,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "selection": {
        "n": 83,
        "net_R": 9.087514212245317,
        "expectancy_R": 0.1094881230391002,
        "pf": 1.2127855430833578,
        "max_drawdown_R": 11.134084021088894,
        "win_rate": 0.39759036144578314,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "last_20_percent": {
        "n": 90,
        "net_R": 8.713371913073509,
        "expectancy_R": 0.09681524347859455,
        "pf": 1.1678290897614214,
        "max_drawdown_R": 22.783622121897018,
        "win_rate": 0.32222222222222224,
        "curve_kind": "ordered_trade_R_not_a_funded_portfolio",
        "funding_approved": false
      },
      "base_passed": false,
      "open_position": null,
      "bars": 8999,
      "start": "2025-10-08 17:00:00+00:00",
      "end": "2026-10-18 15:00:00+00:00"
    }
  },
  "selection_bias": "Repeated rolling search; not independent final validation"
}

Registro completo